National unity! Wait, that’s not what we meant

On the bright side, Albertans and Quebecers now have more in common

I make a lot of charts. Whenever new survey data comes in, I build dozens of charts so I can quickly get a sense of the findings. And, every now and then, a new chart makes me stop and wonder what the heck is going on.

Here’s one:

Albertans used to be a lot more likely than Quebecers to feel very proud of being a Canadian. Now, there’s no difference. Opinions have been pretty stable in Quebec, but have changed dramatically in Alberta.

Well, at least Albertans and Quebecers now have more in common.

This is not a brand new development. As the chart itself shows, the gap between views in the two provinces has been steadily narrowing over the past decade. In fact, I first wrote about this after the 2019 survey. But as the trend extends over time, it becomes even more remarkable.

Before we jump to conclusions about how Albertans feel about Canada (or Ottawa, at least), it’s important to add that the change is not restricted to that province. The drop in strong feelings of national pride has been sharpest in Alberta, but has occurred in each region of the country as well – again, with the exception of Quebec.

Here’s the full picture (prior to 2021, samples sizes for Atlantic Canada and Manitoba-Saskatchewan are quite small; details are available here).

And here’s the comparison between Quebec and the rest of Canada as a whole, showing the Quebec results for those who completed the survey in French. The gap between Quebec francophones and Canadians outside the province has narrowed from 30 percentage points in 2010, to only five today.

These charts only show the proportions saying they have a lot of pride. Most of the remainder are in the middle; and very few Canadians say they are not proud at all. The proportions saying they are not proud at all range from four percent in Ontario to eight percent in Quebec. Here are the full results for Canada as a whole.

Can I explain the decline in strong feelings of national pride outside Quebec? In 2019, I pointed to people’s outlook on the economy, which in the years leading up to that survey had improved in Quebec and soured significantly in Alberta. Now, the darkening economic mood is even more widespread. This could be a factor: people who think the economy is doing badly are less likely to feel very proud of being a Canadian, and a greater share of the population now feels the economy is doing badly than was the case in previous years.

But in provinces like Ontario and B.C. – and across the “rest of Canada” as a whole – the biggest change came between 2019 and 2021. Elsewhere – based on similar data from another survey – we have suggested that this could be a reflection of what many Canadians have been learning about the history of the country’s system of residential schools. Most people are still proud to be Canadian, but perhaps some are turning the tone down a bit as they take in more information about Canada’s treatment of Indigenous Peoples. The evidence for this is indirect. Between 2019 and 2021, for instance, the AmericasBarometer surveys show that the drop in strong feelings of national pride was greater than average among those on the left of the political spectrum, among NDP supporters and among those under the age of 60.

Both of these explanations are plausible, but there are likely more factors at play (not least of all in Alberta). The age and gender dimensions are intriguing: since 2017, strong pride in being a Canadian is down by 17 percentage points for those age 18 to 29, but by only six points for those age 60 and older; and down by 15 points for women, compared to eight points for men.

Finally, it’s not out of the question that the direction that U.S. politics has taken during the period covered by these surveys has made Canadians even more reticent than usual to embrace nationalism – but this is only speculation.

The findings featured in this post are from the Canadian portion of the 2023 AmericasBarometer. The AmericasBarometer is a biennial comparative survey of democratic values and behaviours that covers countries in North, Central and South America, as well as a significant number of countries in the Caribbean (the 2023 survey covers 25 countries). The project is led by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) at Vanderbilt University. 

The survey is the most comprehensive source of information about support for democracy in Canada. Follow the Environics Institute to catch more reports from this survey.

The 2023 AmericasBarometer in Canada survey was conducted by the Environics Institute for Survey Research, in partnership with LAPOP at Vanderbilt University. It was conducted online with a representative sample of 2,500 Canadians (aged 18 and over) between July 20 and August 4, 2023. The author is solely responsible for any errors of presentation or interpretation.

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