Quebec. Go figure.

Diverging trends in support for Canada’s political system

Today’s post offers a short follow-up to something I said last time, when writing about trust in the Supreme Court of Canada. I wrote:

“Over the past decade, Quebec has gradually and quietly emerged as the part of the country where support for Canadian political institutions is highest, while levels of support in some other provinces have ebbed.”

Really?

Here’s three quick examples.

Between 2010 and 2023, the proportion of Canadians who say they have a lot of respect for the political institutions of Canada increased by nine percentage points. But in Quebec, there’s been a 17-point increase during that period – almost twice as big as the jump in the national average. In 2010, there was barely any difference in the proportions holding this view in Quebec, Atlantic Canada, Ontario or Alberta. But Quebecers are now 14 points more likely than both Atlantic Canadians and Ontarians to say they have a lot of respect for the country’s political institutions, and 16 points more likely than Albertans.

There has been less of a change when Canadians are asked about support for our political system – in fact, Canadians on the whole are just as likely to express a lot of support in 2023 as they were in 2010 (40%). In Quebec, however, strong support has increased by nine percentage points, compared to a drop of five points in Ontario and 11 points in Alberta. Strong support in Quebec went from being below the national average in 2010, to being above the national average in 2023.

Finally, over the past decade Quebecers have become much more likely to say they feel a lot of pride living under Canada’s political system: strong pride among Quebecers has increased by 16 percentage points, from 29 percent in 2010 to 45 percent today. This compares to almost no change overall (a slight increase in the national average of 2 points) and a striking 19-point drop in Alberta.

In short, Quebecers are now more likely than Canadians in any other region to express a strong degree of respect for, support for, and pride in the country’s political institutions or system. This is something to keep in mind when interpreting the shifting levels of support for the competing political parties in the province.

(Note that the pattern holds even when looking only at the opinions of francophones in Quebec; see more charts showing this here.)

What explains the shift? In searching for answers, it is natural to focus on politics: maybe it has something to do with the switch back (in 2015) to having a prime minister from Quebec. Or maybe, despite day-to-day frictions, we’re just benefiting from an unusually long period without a major federal-provincial conflict over Quebec’s status or powers.

But I tend to focus on economics. Both the economic outlook and overall satisfaction in Quebec started to improve in the mid-2010s, at exactly the time that the drop in oil prices triggered a recession in other provinces, most notably Alberta.

One way to illustrate this change is by looking at the unemployment rate by city. In 2016, the unemployment rate in Montreal dipped below that of Calgary – an historic reversal of fortunes. A few years later, it dipped below that of Toronto as well.

This is not to suggest that any one economic indicator alone drives perceptions of the political system. But it’s likely not a coincidence that Quebecers and Canadians in other provinces start trending in different directions on support for the country’s political institutions at around the same time that their sense of the strength of their respective regional economies start diverging as well.

The findings featured in this post are from the Canadian portion of the 2023 AmericasBarometer. The AmericasBarometer is a biennial comparative survey of democratic values and behaviours that covers countries in North, Central and South America, as well as a significant number of countries in the Caribbean (the 2023 survey covers 25 countries). The project is led by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) at Vanderbilt University. 

The survey is the most comprehensive source of information about support for democracy in Canada. Follow the Environics Institute to catch more reports from this survey.

The 2023 AmericasBarometer in Canada survey was conducted by the Environics Institute for Survey Research, in partnership with LAPOP at Vanderbilt University. It was conducted online with a representative sample of 2,500 Canadians (aged 18 and over) between July 20 and August 4, 2023. The author is solely responsible for any errors of presentation or interpretation.

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